Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$1.8K
$256.42
76.8¢ → 94.6¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
608h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Yesavg 74.1¢ | $985.25 | $1.3K | +$272.12 | 53% 357-319 (676) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 90.8¢ | $215.47 | $225.62 | +$10.15 | 40% 6449-9526 (15975) |
GR grothCTR | Noavg 5.5¢ | $162.14 | $150.94 | -$12.67 | 66% 297-155 (452) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 91.9¢ | $246.08 | $111 | -$34.92 | 17% 4484-21727 (26211) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $13.34 | $25.67 | +$12.33 | 47% 2079-2387 (4466) |
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $3.32 | $21.68 | +$18.36 | 52% 30722-28786 (59508) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $8.93 | $1.74 | -$7.17 | 71% 13104-5267 (18371) |
PL plainfolderCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $2.8 | $1.02 | -$1.78 | 35% 4427-8266 (12693) |
rabbit007Invested
$985.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$272.12
Record
53%
357-319 (676)
HaradwaithInvested
$215.47
Value
$225.62
PnL
+$10.15
Record
40%
6449-9526 (15975)
Invested
$162.14
Value
$150.94
PnL
-$12.67
Record
66%
297-155 (452)
2B9SInvested
$246.08
Value
$111
PnL
-$34.92
Record
17%
4484-21727 (26211)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$13.34
Value
$25.67
PnL
+$12.33
Record
47%
2079-2387 (4466)
balthazar<$100Invested
$3.32
Value
$21.68
PnL
+$18.36
Record
52%
30722-28786 (59508)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$7.17
Record
71%
13104-5267 (18371)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$1.78
Record
35%
4427-8266 (12693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.