Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $120 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$120.37
-$3.18
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.19 | -$0.21 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $27.88 | $27.96 | +$0.09 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
GR grothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $27.84 | $25.06 | -$2.78 | 4% 2-46 (48) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.46 | -$0.14 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $18.84 | $18.7 | -$0.13 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.19
PnL
-$0.21
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$27.88
Value
$27.96
PnL
+$0.09
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$27.84
Value
$25.06
PnL
-$2.78
Record
4%
2-46 (48)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.46
PnL
-$0.14
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$18.84
Value
$18.7
PnL
-$0.13
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.