Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 28¢ · $314 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$313.96
-$113.45
43.4¢ → 28.5¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Warren-BuffettCTR | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $230.48 | $147.85 | -$102.79 | 65% 891-480 (1371) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $89.28 | $81.84 | -$18.6 | 65% 649-352 (1001) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $88.41 | $35.89 | +$2 | 30% 35477-83899 (119376) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $15.8 | $22.91 | +$7.11 | 55% 42144-34064 (76208) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $21.45 | +$1.05 | 45% 16725-20380 (37105) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $5.76 | $4.03 | -$2.22 | 23% 8566-28985 (37551) |
Warren-BuffettCTRInvested
$230.48
Value
$147.85
PnL
-$102.79
Record
65%
891-480 (1371)
Invested
$89.28
Value
$81.84
PnL
-$18.6
Record
65%
649-352 (1001)
balthazar<$100Invested
$88.41
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$2
Record
30%
35477-83899 (119376)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$22.91
PnL
+$7.11
Record
55%
42144-34064 (76208)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$1.05
Record
45%
16725-20380 (37105)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$2.22
Record
23%
8566-28985 (37551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.