Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $221 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$220.77
-$19.55
97.9¢ → 95.8¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.9¢ | $104.69 | $102.44 | -$2.24 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $88.14 | $86.27 | -$1.88 | 17% 94-450 (544) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.36 | $28.87 | -$0.49 | 29% 893-2183 (3076) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $11.81 | $1.71 | -$10.09 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $1.93 | $0.73 | -$1.2 | 48% 127-137 (264) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $4 | $0.58 | -$3.42 | 38% 66-109 (175) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.27 | $0.04 | -$0.23 | 25% 93-281 (374) |
Invested
$104.69
Value
$102.44
PnL
-$2.24
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$88.14
Value
$86.27
PnL
-$1.88
Record
17%
94-450 (544)
Invested
$29.36
Value
$28.87
PnL
-$0.49
Record
29%
893-2183 (3076)
Invested
$11.81
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$10.09
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$0.73
PnL
-$1.2
Record
48%
127-137 (264)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$3.42
Record
38%
66-109 (175)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.23
Record
25%
93-281 (374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.