Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 0.5¢ · $65 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$64.88
-$2.74
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
173h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dr.mett<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $64.94 | $64.68 | -$0.26 | — 0-1 (1) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $1.79 | $0.1 | -$1.69 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.5¢ | $0.81 | $0.09 | -$0.72 | 79% 346-94 (440) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Noavg 1.1¢ | $0.33 | $0.01 | -$0.07 | 45% 10-12 (22) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.3¢ | $0 | $0.01 | +$0 | 26% 1230-3522 (4752) |
Dr.mett<$100Invested
$64.94
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$0.26
Record
—
0-1 (1)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$1.69
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.72
Record
79%
346-94 (440)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.07
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
1230-3522 (4752)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.