Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Winnipeg Jets record 90+ points?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 30¢ · $695 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$695.1
-$43.48
39.9¢ → 29.5¢
-26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Yesavg 39.8¢ | $414.4 | $316.2 | -$105.53 | 52% 6135-5765 (11900) |
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 59.4¢ | $202.49 | $150.94 | +$24.44 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 57¢ | $124.36 | $150.54 | +$29.45 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $69.93 | $76.59 | +$8.33 | 55% 5184-4272 (9456) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $0.47 | $0.31 | -$0.18 | 16% 373-1948 (2321) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$414.4
Value
$316.2
PnL
-$105.53
Record
52%
6135-5765 (11900)
extractive-manateeInvested
$202.49
Value
$150.94
PnL
+$24.44
Record
34%
660-1265 (1925)
Invested
$124.36
Value
$150.54
PnL
+$29.45
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Anjun<$100Invested
$69.93
Value
$76.59
PnL
+$8.33
Record
55%
5184-4272 (9456)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.18
Record
16%
373-1948 (2321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.