Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Winnipeg Jets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $273 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$273.04

Combined PnL

-$263.62

Smart Money Entry

1.4¢ → 0.4¢

-75% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$206.24

Total Shares208

Combined PnL+$0.22

Yes8 traders

Total Value$66.8

Total Shares25,138

Combined PnL-$263.84

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

803h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.9¢	$116.64	$117	+$0.35	58% 21129-15368 (36497)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$89.38	$89.24	-$0.14	39% 3202-5011 (8213)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$16.7K	$41.76	-$89.8	41% 2124-3048 (5172)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$5.86	$17.51	-$137.86	57% 286-213 (499)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$14.01	$3	-$11.01	39% 2900-4501 (7401)
CosmicCedarCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$814	$2.04	-$6.11	51% 1091-1064 (2155)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$9.66	$1.29	-$8.37	11% 28-231 (259)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$7.25	$0.75	-$6.5	41% 1561-2292 (3853)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.13	$0.4	-$3.73	43% 2287-2977 (5264)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.44	$0.06	-$0.47	53% 23272-20444 (43716)

ghorrock

Invested

$116.64

Value

$117

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$89.38

Value

$89.24

PnL

-$0.14

Record

39%

3202-5011 (8213)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$16,703.4

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$89.8

Record

41%

2124-3048 (5172)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.86

Value

$17.51

PnL

-$137.86

Record

57%

286-213 (499)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.01

Value

PnL

-$11.01

Record

39%

2900-4501 (7401)

CosmicCedarCTR

Yes

Invested

$814

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$6.11

Record

51%

1091-1064 (2155)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.66

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$8.37

Record

11%

28-231 (259)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$6.5

Record

41%

1561-2292 (3853)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.13

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$3.73

Record

43%

2287-2977 (5264)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

803h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

11 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.