Will the Washington Commanders make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$6.1K
$787.8
69.1¢ → 79.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.3K | $3.8K | +$504.71 | 65% 957-513 (1470) |
AN anciano | No | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$181.44 | 53% 1393-1213 (2606) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 68.1¢ | $791.87 | $592.16 | +$96.63 | 41% 2074-2970 (5044) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | No | $68.03 | $68.03 | -$1.2 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $33.91 | $33.5 | -$0.34 | 14% 513-3102 (3615) |
 extractive-manatee<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $90.36 | $25.99 | -$1.72 | 34% 602-1160 (1762) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $12.39 | $12.31 | -$0.08 | — 4-0 (4) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $157.15 | $9.05 | +$8.36 | 45% 2914-3563 (6477) |
Invested
$3,316.64
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$504.71
Record
65%
957-513 (1470)
Invested
$1,532.05
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$181.44
Record
53%
1393-1213 (2606)
TimeTravelerInvested
$791.87
Value
$592.16
PnL
+$96.63
Record
41%
2074-2970 (5044)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$68.03
Value
$68.03
PnL
-$1.2
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$33.91
Value
$33.5
PnL
-$0.34
Record
14%
513-3102 (3615)
extractive-manatee<$100Invested
$90.36
Value
$25.99
PnL
-$1.72
Record
34%
602-1160 (1762)
Invested
$12.39
Value
$12.31
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$157.15
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$8.36
Record
45%
2914-3563 (6477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.