Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Vancouver Canucks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $22 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$21.85
-$138.25
2.8¢ → 0.1¢
-95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME MenacingTurtleCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $5.86 | $16.1 | -$112.74 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $15.51 | $3.5 | -$12.01 | 39% 2906-4507 (7413) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $10.18 | $1.23 | -$8.71 | 40% 1583-2383 (3966) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $2.98 | $0.67 | -$2.31 | 28% 576-1487 (2063) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.9 | $0.35 | -$2.48 | 53% 23775-20945 (44720) |
Invested
$5.86
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$112.74
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
Invested
$15.51
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$12.01
Record
39%
2906-4507 (7413)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$8.71
Record
40%
1583-2383 (3966)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$2.31
Record
28%
576-1487 (2063)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$2.48
Record
53%
23775-20945 (44720)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.