Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $64 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$64.13
-$98.79
6.2¢ → 0.9¢
-86% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $50.14 | $50.72 | +$0.58 | 77% 12708-3879 (16587) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $81.98 | $5.65 | -$76.34 | 57% 870-667 (1537) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $5.09 | $4.86 | -$0.23 | 17% 4501-22036 (26537) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $21 | $2.9 | -$22.81 | 68% 2113-997 (3110) |
Invested
$50.14
Value
$50.72
PnL
+$0.58
Record
77%
12708-3879 (16587)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$81.98
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$76.34
Record
57%
870-667 (1537)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.09
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0.23
Record
17%
4501-22036 (26537)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$21
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$22.81
Record
68%
2113-997 (3110)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.