Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $95 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$95.35
-$74.01
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $44.73 | $44.48 | +$10.31 | 58% 15821-11502 (27323) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.37 | $43.95 | -$0.42 | 68% 13206-6217 (19423) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.67 | $3.21 | -$0.28 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.07 | $2.07 | -$44.39 | 39% 5778-9164 (14942) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $19.6 | $1.65 | -$39.23 | 51% 2593-2528 (5121) |
Invested
$44.73
Value
$44.48
PnL
+$10.31
Record
58%
15821-11502 (27323)
Invested
$44.37
Value
$43.95
PnL
-$0.42
Record
68%
13206-6217 (19423)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$0.67
Value
$3.21
PnL
-$0.28
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$44.39
Record
39%
5778-9164 (14942)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$39.23
Record
51%
2593-2528 (5121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.