Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 80%
$2.1K
-$24.79
88¢ → 85¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 85%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
590h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$25.56 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
 Car | Noavg 92.5¢ | $419.06 | $382.83 | -$36.22 | 67% 4135-2000 (6135) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 86¢ | $344 | $344 | +$0 | 82% 1729-386 (2115) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 89.3¢ | $275.6 | $260.76 | -$14.84 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.41 | $1.24 | +$0.73 | 47% 2029-2245 (4274) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,150.66
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$25.56
Record
73%
2903-1056 (3959)
CarInvested
$419.06
Value
$382.83
PnL
-$36.22
Record
67%
4135-2000 (6135)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$344
Value
$344
PnL
+$0
Record
82%
1729-386 (2115)
Invested
$275.6
Value
$260.76
PnL
-$14.84
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0.73
Record
47%
2029-2245 (4274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.