Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.1K
-$1.64
75.1¢ → 77.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
645h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxVision | Noavg 75.2¢ | $752.22 | $780 | +$27.78 | 37% 42-72 (114) |
 perfectnostalgiaCTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $310.29 | $297.44 | -$30.7 | 55% 338-273 (611) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $37.5 | $39 | +$1.5 | 56% 15312-11850 (27162) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $12.07 | $11.84 | -$0.24 | 18% 3806-17232 (21038) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $8 | +$0.3 | 53% 6562-5775 (12337) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $2.02 | -$0.28 | 52% 333-312 (645) |
Invested
$752.22
Value
$780
PnL
+$27.78
Record
37%
42-72 (114)
perfectnostalgiaCTRInvested
$310.29
Value
$297.44
PnL
-$30.7
Record
55%
338-273 (611)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$37.5
Value
$39
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
15312-11850 (27162)
2B9S<$100Invested
$12.07
Value
$11.84
PnL
-$0.24
Record
18%
3806-17232 (21038)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
6562-5775 (12337)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.28
Record
52%
333-312 (645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.