Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be less than $50M by November 30?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.19

Combined PnL

-$205.43

Smart Money Entry

14¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.19

Total Shares1,475

Combined PnL-$205.43

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$52.71	$0.63	-$52.53	35% 558-1046 (1604)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$56.94	$0.21	-$56.72	60% 7178-4743 (11921)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$51.51	$0.18	-$51.33	49% 7448-7778 (15226)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$26.38	$0.09	-$26.29	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$9.58	$0.03	-$9.54	25% 181-537 (718)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$4.76	$0.02	-$4.74	35% 105-199 (304)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$4.29	$0.02	-$4.27	55% 5874-4771 (10645)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.71

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$52.53

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.94

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$56.72

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.51

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$51.33

Record

49%

7448-7778 (15226)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.38

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$26.29

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.58

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.54

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.74

Record

35%

105-199 (304)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.27

Record

55%

5874-4771 (10645)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.