Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $50M and $75M by November 30?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $204 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$204.34

Combined PnL

$0.05

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$204.31

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.97	+$0.03	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.97	+$0.03	13% 55-372 (427)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	22% 80-280 (360)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.99	+$0.01	27% 923-2513 (3436)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.1	$11.1	+$0.01	47% 309-342 (651)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.3	$3.3	+$0	42% 341-477 (818)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.08	$0.03	-$0.05	50% 81-80 (161)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

13%

55-372 (427)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

22%

80-280 (360)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

27%

923-2513 (3436)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

309-342 (651)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

341-477 (818)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

81-80 (161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.