Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $150M and $175M by November 30?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $508 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$508.47

Combined PnL

-$0.11

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$508.43

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$0.11

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.9¢	$139.84	$139.72	-$0.12	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.7¢	$101.17	$101.26	+$0.08	6% 22-367 (389)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$82.99	$82.95	-$0.03	38% 201-323 (524)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.88	-$0.06	29% 2470-6157 (8627)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.85	$59.85	-$0	50% 4511-4443 (8954)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.94	+$0	28% 833-2134 (2967)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.96	+$0	37% 535-912 (1447)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$14.85	$14.87	+$0.02	32% 205-428 (633)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	56% 63-49 (112)

cigarettes

Invested

$139.84

Value

$139.72

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

smallreceipt

Invested

$101.17

Value

$101.26

PnL

+$0.08

Record

22-367 (389)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$82.99

Value

$82.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

201-323 (524)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

2470-6157 (8627)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.85

Value

$59.85

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4511-4443 (8954)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

833-2134 (2967)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

535-912 (1447)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

32%

205-428 (633)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

63-49 (112)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

203h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.