Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $970 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$970.39

Combined PnL

-$3.89

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$970.04

Total Shares976

Combined PnL-$3.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.34

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

177h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.6¢	$246.89	$246.5	-$0.39	51% 4609-4510 (9119)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.6¢	$243.97	$243.53	-$0.44	23% 84-282 (366)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.6¢	$147.9	$145.35	-$2.54	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$82.85	$82.62	-$0.23	43% 347-453 (800)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$69.79	$69.58	-$0.21	30% 2667-6201 (8868)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$60.62	$60.62	+$0	27% 928-2514 (3442)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$41.34	$41.21	-$0.12	29% 876-2138 (3014)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.82	+$0.06	15% 58-330 (388)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.88	+$0	42% 360-502 (862)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.88	+$0	21% 66-241 (307)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$11.08	$11.04	-$0.03	42% 352-482 (834)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.32	$0.34	+$0.02	51% 83-81 (164)

balthazar

Invested

$246.89

Value

$246.5

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

4609-4510 (9119)

godblessme2026

Invested

$243.97

Value

$243.53

PnL

-$0.44

Record

23%

84-282 (366)

cigarettes

Invested

$147.9

Value

$145.35

PnL

-$2.54

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$82.85

Value

$82.62

PnL

-$0.23

Record

43%

347-453 (800)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$69.79

Value

$69.58

PnL

-$0.21

Record

30%

2667-6201 (8868)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$60.62

Value

$60.62

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

928-2514 (3442)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$41.34

Value

$41.21

PnL

-$0.12

Record

29%

876-2138 (3014)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

15%

58-330 (388)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

360-502 (862)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

66-241 (307)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.08

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

352-482 (834)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

83-81 (164)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

177h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.