Will the total domestic gross for "Godzilla Minus Zero" be between $140M and $160M by December 15?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $679 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$679.47
$0.6
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $239.25 | $239.37 | +$0.12 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.6 | $124.75 | +$0.15 | 27% 933-2514 (3447) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $104.22 | $104.32 | +$0.1 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $99.58 | $99.68 | +$0.1 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $91.3 | $91.39 | +$0.1 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.96 | +$0.02 | 16% 63-330 (393) |
balthazarInvested
$239.25
Value
$239.37
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$124.6
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
27%
933-2514 (3447)
Invested
$104.22
Value
$104.32
PnL
+$0.1
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$99.58
Value
$99.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$91.3
Value
$91.39
PnL
+$0.1
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
16%
63-330 (393)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.