Will the total domestic gross for "Godzilla Minus Zero" be between $120M and $140M by December 15?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $560 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$560.12
-$1.49
99.7¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 41%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $124.59 | $124.19 | -$0.4 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $104.22 | $103.96 | -$0.26 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $104.22 | $103.96 | -$0.26 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $99.58 | $99.33 | -$0.25 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.22 | $59.07 | -$0.15 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.73 | -$0.13 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.89 | -$0.05 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
balthazarInvested
$124.59
Value
$124.19
PnL
-$0.4
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$104.22
Value
$103.96
PnL
-$0.26
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$104.22
Value
$103.96
PnL
-$0.26
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$99.58
Value
$99.33
PnL
-$0.25
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$59.22
Value
$59.07
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.73
PnL
-$0.13
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$0.05
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.