Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 16, 2027

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Fri, Apr 16, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$309.44

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 59.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,810

Combined PnL-$306.93

No4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,259

Combined PnL+$616.37

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$306.55	48% 405-446 (851)
CUTJALENHURTS	Noavg 45¢	$780	$1.1K	+$330	52% 6167-5786 (11953)
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Noavg 58.7¢	$851.71	$945.97	+$94.26	44% 507-657 (1164)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 49.1¢	$709.49	$911.04	+$189.55	41% 2128-3058 (5186)
AU auros2<$100	Noavg 58¢	$42.37	$44.93	+$2.56	— 6-1 (7)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$11.31	$10.23	-$1.08	17% 406-2050 (2456)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$8.24	$8.94	+$0.7	40% 6648-10054 (16702)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,982.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$306.55

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$780

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$330

Record

52%

6167-5786 (11953)

0x53eCc53E7

Invested

$851.71

Value

$945.97

PnL

+$94.26

Record

44%

507-657 (1164)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$709.49

Value

$911.04

PnL

+$189.55

Record

41%

2128-3058 (5186)

auros2<$100

Invested

$42.37

Value

$44.93

PnL

+$2.56

Record

—

6-1 (7)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.31

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$1.08

Record

17%

406-2050 (2456)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.24

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$0.7

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.