Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 71¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$304.7
76¢ → 70.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
567h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 76.3¢ | $3.8K | $3.5K | -$284.01 | 61% 194-123 (317) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 71.1¢ | $868.66 | $624.38 | +$20.16 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71.1¢ | $413.94 | $401.54 | -$68.28 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 27.7¢ | $193.24 | $222.84 | +$88.45 | |
 sciuboi | Yesavg 78.8¢ | $591.73 | $529.63 | -$62.1 | 47% 183-209 (392) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $57.06 | $76.07 | +$13.07 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $37.31 | $65.28 | +$27.97 | 76% 469-152 (621) |
 cambridgeisaac<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $25.53 | $25.53 | +$0.37 | 57% 1090-821 (1911) |
Invested
$3,755.38
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$284.01
Record
61%
194-123 (317)
Invested
$868.66
Value
$624.38
PnL
+$20.16
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
Both legs:
sciuboiInvested
$591.73
Value
$529.63
PnL
-$62.1
Record
47%
183-209 (392)
Invested
$57.06
Value
$76.07
PnL
+$13.07
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$37.31
Value
$65.28
PnL
+$27.97
Record
76%
469-152 (621)
cambridgeisaac<$100Invested
$25.53
Value
$25.53
PnL
+$0.37
Record
57%
1090-821 (1911)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.