Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Dec 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.43

Combined PnL

-$514.44

Smart Money Entry

8¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.43

Total Shares4,425

Combined PnL-$514.44

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$397.68	$1.91	-$384.87	32% 3291-7156 (10447)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$8.45	$1.89	-$5.9	26% 7367-21150 (28517)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.55	$0.55	-$108.47	47% 3854-4314 (8168)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.2	$0.03	-$6.17	38% 2401-3837 (6238)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$2.45	$0.02	-$4.56	27% 2550-6957 (9507)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$4.07	$0.02	-$3.98	22% 369-1344 (1713)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	-$0.5	30% 353-813 (1166)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$397.68

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$384.87

Record

32%

3291-7156 (10447)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.45

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$5.9

Record

26%

7367-21150 (28517)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$108.47

Record

47%

3854-4314 (8168)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.17

Record

38%

2401-3837 (6238)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.56

Record

27%

2550-6957 (9507)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.98

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

30%

353-813 (1166)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8644.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

8745.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.