Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $294 held · ends Dec 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$293.81

Combined PnL

-$14.97

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$290.85

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.96

Total Shares1,972

Combined PnL-$15.12

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.7¢	$190.78	$191	+$0.23	68% 13184-6209 (19393)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.91	-$0.03	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$86.99	$39.94	-$0.05	31% 4458-9740 (14198)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.83	$2.84	+$0.22	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.2	$0.05	-$6.15	38% 2376-3821 (6197)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$2.45	$0.03	-$4.55	27% 2510-6880 (9390)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$0.03	-$3.97	20% 342-1337 (1679)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	17% 4496-22007 (26503)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0	-$0.33	30% 489-1151 (1640)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0	-$0.33	29% 473-1160 (1633)

donthackme

Invested

$190.78

Value

$191

PnL

+$0.23

Record

68%

13184-6209 (19393)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.91

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$86.99

Value

$39.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

31%

4458-9740 (14198)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.22

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$6.15

Record

38%

2376-3821 (6197)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.55

Record

27%

2510-6880 (9390)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.97

Record

20%

342-1337 (1679)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

4496-22007 (26503)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0.33

Record

30%

489-1151 (1640)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

PnL

-$0.33

Record

29%

473-1160 (1633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.