Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.81

Combined PnL

-$99.6

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.81

Total Shares372

Combined PnL-$99.6

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$113.29	$0.3	-$36.49	43% 802-1042 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$35.89	$0.27	-$35.62	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.74	$0.06	-$7.68	9% 3-30 (33)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.76	$0.05	-$6.71	24% 82-266 (348)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.69	$0.05	-$6.64	55% 56-46 (102)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.03	+$0	— 0-2 (2)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$0.03	-$3.97	26% 378-1078 (1456)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.5	$0.02	-$2.48	39% 3421-5409 (8830)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.29

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$36.49

Record

43%

802-1042 (1844)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.89

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$35.62

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.74

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$7.68

Record

3-30 (33)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$6.71

Record

24%

82-266 (348)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$6.64

Record

55%

56-46 (102)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0-2 (2)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.97

Record

26%

378-1078 (1456)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.48

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.