Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 99¢ · $173 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$173.39
-$56.43
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.3¢ | $178.74 | $119.34 | +$0.17 | 53% 23817-20965 (44782) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $32.01 | $24 | -$8.01 | 39% 2908-4509 (7417) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $47.85 | $11.15 | -$36.7 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $15.06 | $10.48 | -$4.58 | 41% 2127-3055 (5182) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $10.18 | $8.42 | -$7.3 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
Invested
$178.74
Value
$119.34
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
23817-20965 (44782)
Invested
$32.01
Value
$24
PnL
-$8.01
Record
39%
2908-4509 (7417)
Invested
$47.85
Value
$11.15
PnL
-$36.7
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$15.06
Value
$10.48
PnL
-$4.58
Record
41%
2127-3055 (5182)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$7.3
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.