Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$31.41

Combined PnL

-$95.28

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$31.41

Total Shares6,279

Combined PnL-$95.28

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+92 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$19.83	-$76.56	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$8.33	$4.13	-$4.21	17% 106-504 (610)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.17	$1.46	+$1.29	72% 13841-5375 (19216)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.77	$1.37	+$0.78	31% 3256-7119 (10375)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.74	$1	-$3.88	53% 23594-20788 (44382)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.74	$0.81	-$0.93	31% 739-1614 (2353)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.07	$0.74	+$0.67	42% 837-1172 (2009)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.66	$0.66	-$2.55	47% 10347-11812 (22159)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.11	$0.55	-$1.06	28% 576-1486 (2062)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.21	$0.3	+$0.1	26% 581-1648 (2229)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$0.26	$0.26	-$0.99	49% 6560-6929 (13489)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.25	-$5.31	39% 681-1087 (1768)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.71	$0.06	-$2.64	20% 39-154 (193)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$76.56

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$4.21

Record

17%

106-504 (610)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$1.29

Record

72%

13841-5375 (19216)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.78

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

PnL

-$3.88

Record

53%

23594-20788 (44382)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.93

Record

31%

739-1614 (2353)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.67

Record

42%

837-1172 (2009)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$2.55

Record

47%

10347-11812 (22159)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$1.06

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

26%

581-1648 (2229)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.99

Record

49%

6560-6929 (13489)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$5.31

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.64

Record

20%

39-154 (193)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+92 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.