Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$27.18

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,282

Combined PnL-$13.94

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.22

Total Shares1,017

Combined PnL-$13.24

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.8¢	$981.85	$977.92	-$3.92	73% 12907-4853 (17760)
PL plainfolder	Noavg 99.9¢	$301.63	$300.34	-$1.28	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
PO pollo07	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.08	$297.73	-$1.35	33% 461-944 (1405)
VA Vale54holi	Noavg 99.9¢	$284.45	$283.16	-$1.28	33% 307-630 (937)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.9¢	$274.73	$273.49	-$1.24	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.9¢	$240.66	$239.6	-$1.04	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 99.9¢	$238.61	$237.54	-$1.07	39% 550-849 (1399)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 99.9¢	$238.41	$237.34	-$1.07	32% 427-897 (1324)
AK akroll	Noavg 99.9¢	$223.37	$222.36	-$1.01	33% 468-943 (1411)
balthazar	Noavg 99.8¢	$194.72	$194.06	-$0.66	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.74	$1	-$3.88	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.67	$0.83	-$0.84	17% 89-436 (525)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.25	-$5.31	39% 661-1018 (1679)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.71	$0.06	-$2.64	18% 33-151 (184)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.05	-$0.05	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.56	$0.03	-$0.53	35% 567-1075 (1642)

donthackme

Invested

$981.85

Value

$977.92

PnL

-$3.92

Record

73%

12907-4853 (17760)

plainfolder

Invested

$301.63

Value

$300.34

PnL

-$1.28

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

pollo07

Invested

$299.08

Value

$297.73

PnL

-$1.35

Record

33%

461-944 (1405)

Vale54holi

Invested

$284.45

Value

$283.16

PnL

-$1.28

Record

33%

307-630 (937)

smallreceipt

Invested

$274.73

Value

$273.49

PnL

-$1.24

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$240.66

Value

$239.6

PnL

-$1.04

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

zerone777

Invested

$238.61

Value

$237.54

PnL

-$1.07

Record

39%

550-849 (1399)

kaxel78

Invested

$238.41

Value

$237.34

PnL

-$1.07

Record

32%

427-897 (1324)

akroll

Invested

$223.37

Value

$222.36

PnL

-$1.01

Record

33%

468-943 (1411)

balthazar

Invested

$194.72

Value

$194.06

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

PnL

-$3.88

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.84

Record

17%

89-436 (525)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$5.31

Record

39%

661-1018 (1679)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.64

Record

18%

33-151 (184)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.53

Record

35%

567-1075 (1642)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.