Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will The Social Reckoning get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$0.71
-$62.9
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.79 | $0.2 | -$17.53 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $16.82 | $0.18 | -$16.63 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $9.01 | $0.1 | -$8.91 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.61 | $0.09 | -$8.52 | 17% 221-1047 (1268) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.16 | $0.06 | -$5.1 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.16 | $0.06 | -$5.1 | 30% 367-838 (1205) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $1.12 | $0.01 | -$1.11 | 28% 212-552 (764) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 29% 2876-7016 (9892) |
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$17.53
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$16.63
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$9.01
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$8.91
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.52
Record
17%
221-1047 (1268)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$5.1
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$5.1
Record
30%
367-838 (1205)
Invested
$1.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.11
Record
28%
212-552 (764)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
2876-7016 (9892)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.