Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 16¢ · $417 held · ends Jan 12, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Jan 12, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$417.46

Combined PnL

$209.73

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 16.3¢

-35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$355.16

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$205.43

No3 traders

Total Value$62.31

Total Shares123

Combined PnL+$4.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$129.88	$257.26	+$127.38	65% 957-513 (1470)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$6.85	$73.15	+$66.3	52% 6019-5625 (11644)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$55.44	$60.6	+$5.16	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
EN End123CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$13	$24.75	+$11.75	64% 303-170 (473)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Noavg 77¢	$1.54	$1.01	-$0.53	82% 3048-649 (3697)
CosmicCedar<$100	Noavg 75¢	$1.38	$0.7	-$0.34	59% 968-671 (1639)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.88

Value

$257.26

PnL

+$127.38

Record

65%

957-513 (1470)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$73.15

PnL

+$66.3

Record

52%

6019-5625 (11644)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$55.44

Value

$60.6

PnL

+$5.16

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

End123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$11.75

Record

64%

303-170 (473)

Dreamwire<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

82%

3048-649 (3697)

CosmicCedar<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.34

Record

59%

968-671 (1639)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.0%

16.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$456.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

556.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.