Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $411 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$411.45
-$174.87
2.9¢ → 1.8¢
-37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+28 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
195h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 97.7¢ | $839.39 | $145.28 | -$2.9 | 53% 1577-1414 (2991) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $186.6 | $129.31 | -$57.3 | 56% 255-199 (454) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $114.98 | $102.2 | -$109.59 | 45% 2388-2953 (5341) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yes | $15.9 | $15.9 | +$3.26 | 40% 2673-3979 (6652) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $11.29 | $8.01 | -$2.81 | 41% 2001-2835 (4836) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.38 | $7.26 | -$3.91 | 57% 17612-13142 (30754) |
12 123987456CTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $371.25 | $2.25 | -$1.04 | 43% 2054-2682 (4736) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.23 | $1.23 | -$0.58 | 79% 11600-3000 (14600) |
Invested
$839.39
Value
$145.28
PnL
-$2.9
Record
53%
1577-1414 (2991)
Invested
$186.6
Value
$129.31
PnL
-$57.3
Record
56%
255-199 (454)
Invested
$114.98
Value
$102.2
PnL
-$109.59
Record
45%
2388-2953 (5341)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$15.9
PnL
+$3.26
Record
40%
2673-3979 (6652)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$11.29
Value
$8.01
PnL
-$2.81
Record
41%
2001-2835 (4836)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$7.26
PnL
-$3.91
Record
57%
17612-13142 (30754)
Invested
$371.25
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$1.04
Record
43%
2054-2682 (4736)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.58
Record
79%
11600-3000 (14600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.