Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the San Francisco 49ers have more than 12.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.2K
$49.8
64.2¢ → 49¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 36.9¢ | $643.89 | $602.37 | +$229.21 | 34% 661-1265 (1926) |
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 65¢ | $738.89 | $568.38 | -$181.88 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yes | $46.76 | $46.76 | -$0.34 | — 4-0 (4) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.8 | $9.8 | +$3 | 44% 506-657 (1163) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $9.53 | $9.53 | -$0.19 | 16% 374-1953 (2327) |
extractive-manateeInvested
$643.89
Value
$602.37
PnL
+$229.21
Record
34%
661-1265 (1926)
Invested
$738.89
Value
$568.38
PnL
-$181.88
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$46.76
Value
$46.76
PnL
-$0.34
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$3
Record
44%
506-657 (1163)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$9.53
PnL
-$0.19
Record
16%
374-1953 (2327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.