Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 3.4¢ · $291 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$290.51

Combined PnL

-$209.47

Smart Money Entry

7.7¢ → 3.4¢

-56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$133.91

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$0.77

Yes7 traders

Total Value$156.59

Total Shares4,867

Combined PnL-$210.24

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1038h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 98.5¢	$123.61	$123.51	+$0.4	49% 1794-1876 (3670)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.8K	$60.95	-$58.83	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$2.7K	$51.22	-$49.57	59% 1006-707 (1713)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$135.61	$27.66	-$107.95	73% 12972-4916 (17888)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$339.08	$11.53	+$2.19	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$10.03	$10.4	+$0.37	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
DragontreeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.42	$3.86	+$6.19	59% 1287-906 (2193)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$3.05	$0.69	-$2.36	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.6	$0.68	+$0.08	39% 124-191 (315)

PiEDawg

Invested

$123.61

Value

$123.51

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1794-1876 (3670)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,792.66

Value

$60.95

PnL

-$58.83

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,682.74

Value

$51.22

PnL

-$49.57

Record

59%

1006-707 (1713)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.61

Value

$27.66

PnL

-$107.95

Record

73%

12972-4916 (17888)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$339.08

Value

$11.53

PnL

+$2.19

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

DragontreeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$6.19

Record

59%

1287-906 (2193)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$2.36

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

39%

124-191 (315)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1038h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.6%

3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2089.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

2189.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.