Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $293 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$292.7
$0.19
95.6¢ → 95.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anothercoin | Noavg 95.7¢ | $128.38 | $128.38 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 95¢ | $118.75 | $119.57 | +$0.82 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $24.61 | $24.27 | -$0.34 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $12.85 | $12.67 | -$0.18 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $7.92 | $7.81 | -$0.11 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Invested
$128.38
Value
$128.38
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$118.75
Value
$119.57
PnL
+$0.82
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$24.61
Value
$24.27
PnL
-$0.34
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$12.85
Value
$12.67
PnL
-$0.18
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.81
PnL
-$0.11
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.