Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 61¢ · $203 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$203.21
$2.7
53.1¢ → 60.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $74.5 | $71.89 | -$2.61 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $69.79 | $69.79 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $36.4 | $36.4 | -$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $13.44 | $13.19 | -$0.25 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1 | $7.7 | +$6.7 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $5.39 | $4.24 | -$1.14 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Invested
$74.5
Value
$71.89
PnL
-$2.61
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$69.79
Value
$69.79
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
balthazar<$100Invested
$36.4
Value
$36.4
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$13.19
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$6.7
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$1.14
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.