Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before January 1, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $300 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$299.87
$2.89
97.1¢ → 95¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anothercoin | Noavg 98¢ | $131.53 | $131.53 | +$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 98¢ | $122.5 | $122.5 | +$0 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $22.83 | $24.86 | +$2.03 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $12.46 | $12.99 | +$0.53 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $7.67 | $8 | +$0.33 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Invested
$131.53
Value
$131.53
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$122.5
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$0
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$22.83
Value
$24.86
PnL
+$2.03
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$12.46
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$0.53
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.33
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.