Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 19¢ · $51 held · ends Dec 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$51.03
-$4.63
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.1¢ | $36.2 | $33.3 | -$2.9 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.4¢ | $17.3 | $15.73 | -$1.58 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $2.06 | $1.91 | -$0.15 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.