Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.2K
$45.58
94.5¢ → 98.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 92¢ | $510.6 | $544.73 | +$36.35 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
 probability | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $404.63 | $407.32 | +$4.36 | 41% 1359-1916 (3275) |
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 95¢ | $217.89 | $214.74 | +$7.74 | 71% 317-129 (446) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $3.5 | $0.81 | -$2.87 | 72% 1532-585 (2117) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.