Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 5.3¢ · $500 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$500.34
$76.88
5¢ → 5.3¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKenCTR | Noavg 5¢ | $349.71 | $419.65 | +$69.94 | 53% 3029-2636 (5665) |
HO HotDogs<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $58.07 | $62.36 | +$3.96 | 94% 441-28 (469) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.8¢ | $7.23 | $6.15 | -$1.09 | 36% 14275-25592 (39867) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $2.37 | $4.29 | +$1.92 | 43% 1331-1795 (3126) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.88 | $3.96 | +$1.08 | 48% 3385-3596 (6981) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.86 | $3.93 | +$1.07 | 31% 149-329 (478) |
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$349.71
Value
$419.65
PnL
+$69.94
Record
53%
3029-2636 (5665)
Invested
$58.07
Value
$62.36
PnL
+$3.96
Record
94%
441-28 (469)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$1.09
Record
36%
14275-25592 (39867)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$1.92
Record
43%
1331-1795 (3126)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$3.96
PnL
+$1.08
Record
48%
3385-3596 (6981)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$1.07
Record
31%
149-329 (478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.