Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$5.89
97¢ → 97.6¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
406h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97¢ | $938.44 | $915.92 | +$5.56 | 77% 1392-412 (1804) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 97¢ | $101.85 | $102.48 | +$0.63 | 89% 1652-202 (1854) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $23.27 | $23.58 | +$0.12 | 41% 1354-1916 (3270) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $10.02 | $9.78 | +$0.26 | 69% 981-443 (1424) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.44 | $2.76 | -$0.68 | 50% 2560-2602 (5162) |
Invested
$938.44
Value
$915.92
PnL
+$5.56
Record
77%
1392-412 (1804)
elmcap2Invested
$101.85
Value
$102.48
PnL
+$0.63
Record
89%
1652-202 (1854)
probability<$100Invested
$23.27
Value
$23.58
PnL
+$0.12
Record
41%
1354-1916 (3270)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$10.02
Value
$9.78
PnL
+$0.26
Record
69%
981-443 (1424)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$2.76
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
2560-2602 (5162)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.