Will the Republicans win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $936 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$935.8

Combined PnL

-$115.53

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 99.4¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$921.49

Total Shares927

Combined PnL+$76.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.31

Total Shares1,852

Combined PnL-$192.16

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 88.3¢	$458.47	$516.24	+$57.77	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 89.1¢	$224.06	$250.01	+$11.11	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.6	$57.48	+$3.73	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$48.56	$49.7	+$1.14	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92¢	$22.48	$24.29	+$1.81	50% 9583-9583 (19166)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$19.23	$19.88	+$0.65	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$201.84	$10.72	-$191.12	50% 1748-1776 (3524)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$3.46	$3.89	+$0.43	37% 219-366 (585)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$24.51	$3.59	-$1.04	45% 2525-3059 (5584)

balthazar

Invested

$458.47

Value

$516.24

PnL

+$57.77

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$224.06

Value

$250.01

PnL

+$11.11

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$57.48

PnL

+$3.73

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$48.56

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$1.14

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$22.48

Value

$24.29

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

9583-9583 (19166)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.23

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0.65

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.84

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$191.12

Record

50%

1748-1776 (3524)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$0.43

Record

37%

219-366 (585)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.51

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$1.04

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.