Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.2K
$56.61
96.4¢ → 99¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
292h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $949.45 | $939.96 | +$10 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $578.52 | $605.05 | +$32.39 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 95¢ | $302.69 | $312.57 | +$12.43 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
IN insidero | Yesavg 98.3¢ | $248.02 | $247.52 | +$1.14 | 76% 291-92 (383) |
 yen4u<$100 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $68.85 | $68.85 | +$0.67 | 86% 804-135 (939) |
elmcap2Invested
$949.45
Value
$939.96
PnL
+$10
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
ImJustKenInvested
$578.52
Value
$605.05
PnL
+$32.39
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
Invested
$302.69
Value
$312.57
PnL
+$12.43
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$248.02
Value
$247.52
PnL
+$1.14
Record
76%
291-92 (383)
yen4u<$100Invested
$68.85
Value
$68.85
PnL
+$0.67
Record
86%
804-135 (939)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.