Will the Republicans win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $66 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$65.6
$13.47
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
602h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CosmicCedar<$100 | Yesavg 77.7¢ | $31.08 | $39.14 | +$8.34 | 51% 1101-1076 (2177) |
ST Stonktrader<$100 | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $15.38 | $22.5 | +$7.32 | 76% 195-60 (255) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $1.96 | $2.99 | +$1.03 | 23% 1809-6061 (7870) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.7¢ | $2.73 | $0.88 | -$2.52 | 53% 23824-20966 (44790) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $0.8 | $0.1 | -$0.7 | 24% 798-2568 (3366) |
CosmicCedar<$100Invested
$31.08
Value
$39.14
PnL
+$8.34
Record
51%
1101-1076 (2177)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$7.32
Record
76%
195-60 (255)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.99
PnL
+$1.03
Record
23%
1809-6061 (7870)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.88
PnL
-$2.52
Record
53%
23824-20966 (44790)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
24%
798-2568 (3366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.