Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 92¢ · $546 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$545.89
-$6.03
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anciano | Yesavg 92¢ | $328.07 | $476.85 | -$4.5 | 52% 1173-1079 (2252) |
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $47.15 | $47.15 | +$0 | 52% 921-866 (1787) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 7.8¢ | $16.24 | $13.9 | -$1.53 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $6.3 | $6.3 | +$0 | 50% 8128-8135 (16263) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $1.69 | $1.69 | +$0 | 47% 1602-1786 (3388) |
Invested
$328.07
Value
$476.85
PnL
-$4.5
Record
52%
1173-1079 (2252)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR<$100Invested
$47.15
Value
$47.15
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
921-866 (1787)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$13.9
PnL
-$1.53
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8128-8135 (16263)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1602-1786 (3388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.