Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$29.34

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 98¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,316

Combined PnL+$61.37

No3 traders

Total Value$40.61

Total Shares1,562

Combined PnL-$32.04

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

527h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 93.8¢	$103.98	$653.77	+$16.81	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
macrosteaks	Yes	$294.15	$294.15	+$15.65	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 89¢	$173.55	$237.66	+$19.64	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$58.52	$67.06	+$8.16	94% 443-28 (471)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$49.85	$29.71	-$29.55	61% 289-185 (474)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yes	$28.73	$28.73	+$1.11	50% 1695-1689 (3384)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Noavg 3.6¢	$7.9	$6.22	-$1.68	36% 2155-3861 (6016)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	No	$4.68	$4.68	-$0.81	48% 102-110 (212)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$103.98

Value

$653.77

PnL

+$16.81

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

macrosteaks

Yes

Invested

$294.15

Value

$294.15

PnL

+$15.65

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$173.55

Value

$237.66

PnL

+$19.64

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.52

Value

$67.06

PnL

+$8.16

Record

94%

443-28 (471)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Invested

$49.85

Value

$29.71

PnL

-$29.55

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.73

Value

$28.73

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

1695-1689 (3384)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$1.68

Record

36%

2155-3861 (6016)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.81

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

527h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.