Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$352.27

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 87.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,235

Combined PnL+$44.39

No3 traders

Total Value$445.46

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL-$396.65

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anciano	Yesavg 86¢	$0.92	$1.8K	+$47.26	52% 1161-1068 (2229)
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 16.7¢	$484.93	$362.5	-$122.43	48% 6241-6897 (13138)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$95.95	$92.16	-$2.87	16% 403-2058 (2461)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 11¢	$183.86	$82.2	-$274.35	61% 284-182 (466)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.64	$0.76	+$0.13	42% 1801-2480 (4281)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$47.26

Record

52%

1161-1068 (2229)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$484.93

Value

$362.5

PnL

-$122.43

Record

48%

6241-6897 (13138)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.95

Value

$92.16

PnL

-$2.87

Record

16%

403-2058 (2461)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$183.86

Value

$82.2

PnL

-$274.35

Record

61%

284-182 (466)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

1801-2480 (4281)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.