Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.0K
-$11.59
94¢ → 93.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
457h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 94¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$20 | 56% 15363-11918 (27281) |
PA pantomimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $83.52 | $62.64 | -$31.32 | 52% 1287-1197 (2484) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 | 42% 5279-7229 (12508) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $34.14 | $34.14 | +$0 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $20.97 | $20.69 | -$0.27 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,880
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$20
Record
56%
15363-11918 (27281)
Invested
$83.52
Value
$62.64
PnL
-$31.32
Record
52%
1287-1197 (2484)
Invested
$47
Value
$47
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5279-7229 (12508)
Invested
$34.14
Value
$34.14
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$20.97
Value
$20.69
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.