Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (83%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republican Party win the NC-14 House seat?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 18¢ · $162 held · ends Nov 4

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$162.1

Combined PnL

-$53.85

Smart Money Entry

18.1¢ → 17.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$85.76

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$4.51

No9 traders

Total Value$76.26

Total Shares693

Combined PnL-$49.34

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Yesavg 90¢	$100.3	$85.76	-$4.51	43% 131-172 (303)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 18.9¢	$75.3	$43.72	-$31.58	61% 20510-12860 (33370)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.55	$4.24	-$2.31	31% 279-608 (887)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.55	$4.24	-$2.31	31% 251-564 (815)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.55	$4.24	-$2.31	32% 303-642 (945)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.4	$4.14	-$2.26	41% 379-537 (916)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.4	$4.14	-$2.26	28% 159-408 (567)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$6.4	$4.14	-$2.26	30% 184-437 (621)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$5.72	$3.7	-$2.02	48% 3408-3679 (7087)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$5.72	$3.7	-$2.02	32% 304-636 (940)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes

Invested

$100.3

Value

$85.76

PnL

-$4.51

Record

43%

131-172 (303)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$75.3

Value

$43.72

PnL

-$31.58

Record

61%

20510-12860 (33370)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

31%

279-608 (887)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

31%

251-564 (815)

pollo07CTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

32%

303-642 (945)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$2.26

Record

41%

379-537 (916)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$2.26

Record

28%

159-408 (567)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$2.26

Record

30%

184-437 (621)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$2.02

Record

48%

3408-3679 (7087)

akrollCTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$2.02

Record

32%

304-636 (940)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 83%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.1%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$423.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

523.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.