Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$14.54

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 85¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,879

Combined PnL-$89.39

No4 traders

Total Value$676.91

Total Shares4,835

Combined PnL+$74.85

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Yesavg 83¢	$7.47	$1.4K	-$84.5	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 83.6¢	$103.87	$567.58	+$29.49	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yes	$537.64	$537.64	-$34.38	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 15.8¢	$266.39	$280	+$13.61	40% 706-1071 (1777)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 13¢	$207.42	$223.38	+$15.96	47% 484-550 (1034)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 10.9¢	$59.9	$170.87	+$45.77	61% 289-185 (474)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 15.7¢	$6.6	$2.66	-$0.49	53% 4111-3612 (7723)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$7.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$84.5

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$103.87

Value

$567.58

PnL

+$29.49

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$537.64

Value

$537.64

PnL

-$34.38

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$266.39

Value

$280

PnL

+$13.61

Record

40%

706-1071 (1777)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$207.42

Value

$223.38

PnL

+$15.96

Record

47%

484-550 (1034)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$59.9

Value

$170.87

PnL

+$45.77

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

4111-3612 (7723)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.5%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.