Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$5.08

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 82.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,909

Combined PnL-$93.89

No4 traders

Total Value$631.62

Total Shares3,715

Combined PnL+$88.81

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Yesavg 87.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$52.63	53% 1578-1414 (2992)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 83.6¢	$89.6	$547.78	-$7.19	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yes	$518.88	$518.88	-$34.38	51% 2116-2028 (4144)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 15.8¢	$316.39	$340	+$23.61	40% 706-1067 (1773)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 10.9¢	$59.9	$207.49	+$45.77	61% 284-183 (467)
AN anoin123CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$60.71	$79.39	+$18.68	47% 483-550 (1033)
GA Gaditima<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$24.6	$24.9	+$0.3	48% 6864-7497 (14361)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$4	$4.75	+$0.75	72% 12562-4974 (17536)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$1,375.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$52.63

Record

53%

1578-1414 (2992)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$89.6

Value

$547.78

PnL

-$7.19

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$518.88

Value

$518.88

PnL

-$34.38

Record

51%

2116-2028 (4144)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$316.39

Value

$340

PnL

+$23.61

Record

40%

706-1067 (1773)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$59.9

Value

$207.49

PnL

+$45.77

Record

61%

284-183 (467)

anoin123CTR<$100

Invested

$60.71

Value

$79.39

PnL

+$18.68

Record

47%

483-550 (1033)

Gaditima<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

6864-7497 (14361)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

72%

12562-4974 (17536)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.