Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$2.38

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 84¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,929

Combined PnL+$64.97

No5 traders

Total Value$341.12

Total Shares2,132

Combined PnL-$62.59

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 84¢	$959.71	$959.71	+$0	61% 209-133 (342)
LI lineth	Yesavg 77¢	$444.24	$484.68	+$49.1	42% 254-350 (604)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	No	$17.89	$203.5	-$78.2	61% 289-185 (474)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 77.9¢	$162.82	$175.56	+$15.88	53% 1588-1422 (3010)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$80.44	$73.56	+$9.05	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 14.6¢	$43.09	$47.25	+$4.16	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$8.1	$9.6	+$1.5	41% 6720-9556 (16276)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$6.3	$7.2	+$0.9	50% 1695-1680 (3375)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$959.71

Value

$959.71

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

209-133 (342)

lineth

Yes

Invested

$444.24

Value

$484.68

PnL

+$49.1

Record

42%

254-350 (604)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$17.89

Value

$203.5

PnL

-$78.2

Record

61%

289-185 (474)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$162.82

Value

$175.56

PnL

+$15.88

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$80.44

Value

$73.56

PnL

+$9.05

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$43.09

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$4.16

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$1.5

Record

41%

6720-9556 (16276)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.