Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$269.12

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 94¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,296

Combined PnL+$237.7

No6 traders

Total Value$81.61

Total Shares1,600

Combined PnL+$31.42

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
macrosteaks	Yes	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$132.2	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
LI lineth	Yesavg 80.1¢	$462.24	$549.66	+$81.87	42% 254-350 (604)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 94.8¢	$805.03	$407.94	+$0.02	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
SI singularityman	Yesavg 82¢	$157.44	$182.9	+$23.62	42% 140-196 (336)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$23.6	$35.4	+$11.8	43% 2144-2793 (4937)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	No	$32.24	$32.24	+$10.75	48% 102-110 (212)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$27.73	$10.2	+$0.97	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$1.32	$1.99	+$8.01	62% 14548-9094 (23642)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 4.9¢	$29.15	$1.53	+$0.02	24% 302-944 (1246)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.37	$0.25	-$0.11	44% 6175-7916 (14091)

macrosteaks

Yes

Invested

$2,000.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$132.2

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

lineth

Yes

Invested

$462.24

Value

$549.66

PnL

+$81.87

Record

42%

254-350 (604)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$805.03

Value

$407.94

PnL

+$0.02

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

singularityman

Yes

Invested

$157.44

Value

$182.9

PnL

+$23.62

Record

42%

140-196 (336)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$11.8

Record

43%

2144-2793 (4937)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Invested

$32.24

Value

$32.24

PnL

+$10.75

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$27.73

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.97

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$8.01

Record

62%

14548-9094 (23642)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.11

Record

44%

6175-7916 (14091)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.