Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$79.43

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,546

Combined PnL+$175.11

Yes5 traders

Total Value$766.04

Total Shares3,004

Combined PnL-$95.68

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 73.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$22.45	48% 6872-7509 (14381)
SB sbimbgCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$333.52	$325.45	-$8.06	70% 3224-1392 (4616)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 25.4¢	$799.84	$258.41	-$87.94	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 72.6¢	$171.24	$175.65	+$4.41	51% 2116-2029 (4145)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$158.25	$168.14	+$9.89	66% 949-498 (1447)
LP lpgb	Noavg 75¢	$320.4	$148.57	+$147.3	24% 295-911 (1206)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$37.37	$37.62	+$0.26	42% 5370-7408 (12778)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100	Noavg 74¢	$37	$37.25	+$0.25	79% 344-90 (434)
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$42.3	$10.4	-$8.64	61% 288-183 (471)
AN anoin123<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$7.45	+$0.45	47% 483-550 (1033)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$4.56	$3.63	-$0.93	53% 1578-1415 (2993)

Gaditima

Invested

$1,467.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$22.45

Record

48%

6872-7509 (14381)

sbimbgCTR

Yes

Invested

$333.52

Value

$325.45

PnL

-$8.06

Record

70%

3224-1392 (4616)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$799.84

Value

$258.41

PnL

-$87.94

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$171.24

Value

$175.65

PnL

+$4.41

Record

51%

2116-2029 (4145)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.25

Value

$168.14

PnL

+$9.89

Record

66%

949-498 (1447)

lpgb

Invested

$320.4

Value

$148.57

PnL

+$147.3

Record

24%

295-911 (1206)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$37.37

Value

$37.62

PnL

+$0.26

Record

42%

5370-7408 (12778)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100

Invested

$37

Value

$37.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

79%

344-90 (434)

SitsToPeeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.3

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$8.64

Record

61%

288-183 (471)

anoin123<$100

Invested

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

483-550 (1033)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.93

Record

53%

1578-1415 (2993)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.2%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.